The “ugly realities” facing Zelensky

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Zelensky at a Nato summit in 2023. Beata Zawrzel/NurPhoto/Getty

The “ugly realities” facing Zelensky

As the Ukraine war drags on, says Graham Allison in Foreign Policy, Donald Trump is forcing a confrontation with some “ugly realities”. When he told Volodymyr Zelensky last month that he was “not winning this”, it was harsh, but it captured the basic truth that without the lifeline of supplies from the US, the Ukrainian president simply cannot sustain the war. Rather than attempting to deny brute facts, persuade an unpersuadable Trump to change his mind, or “wait for a European Godot”, Zelensky should focus on what he and his brave compatriots have won. They have defeated Vladimir Putin’s attempt to wipe their country off the map and fought one of the world’s most powerful militaries to a standstill. They should now use the few cards they have left to negotiate an “ugly but sustainable peace”.

First, Zelensky must understand that the “most important player at the table is Trump”, and that the US president is unlikely to change his mind. Trump disdains Zelensky, likes Putin and “doesn’t really care about Ukraine”. Were I counselling the Ukrainian president, I would suggest he “practise grovelling”. He must also recognise that his country shares a 1,400-mile border with a great power. It must therefore try to survive within the de facto sphere of influence of its hostile neighbour. That means forgetting about Nato, and accepting that the most likely alternative to a hot war is not a “lasting peace” but a long and tense armistice. Kyiv does have one bit of leverage in ensuring that a peace deal doesn’t just grant Putin respite to rearm: Trump would hate to declare a “beautiful” peace deal only to see it blow up on his watch. It’s not much, but it’s something.

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The rest of today’s email includes:

🚕 Piers Morgan chatting to Donald Trump from the back of a cab
🏝️ The reptile that crossed the Pacific on a “vegetation raft”
🤔 A very silly joke about the JFK conspiracy theory

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