American military planners are increasingly worried about the so-called “ship gap” with China, say Stephen Biddle and Eric Labs in Foreign Affairs. The Chinese navy has 400 vessels to America’s 295, reversing the advantage the US held just two decades ago. That shortfall is only expected to grow. It’s true that the US ships are larger and better equipped: China’s submarines mostly run on diesel, for example, whereas America has 49 much more capable nuclear-powered subs. But if the two superpowers ever go to war, the Chinese have a big advantage: their colossal manufacturing power. The US Navy’s own intelligence services estimate that China’s shipbuilding capacity exceeds America’s “by a factor of more than 200”. In a drawn-out conflict, that could be the difference between victory and defeat.

No one knows this better than the Americans. When the US were up against Japan during World War Two, the roles were reversed: the Japanese thought the superiority of its “high-quality ships and highly trained sailors” would secure victory. Instead, America prevailed in part because of its phenomenal manufacturing prowess. The US Navy managed to more than double the size of its fleet in the year after Pearl Harbour, despite absorbing huge losses; Japan, which had a much more limited industrial base, could “barely replace what its navy was losing in battle”. Having entered the war with just seven large aircraft carriers and a single escort carrier, the Americans emerged from it with 28 large carriers and 71 escort carriers. Of course, not all conflicts are drawn-out “wars of attrition”. But if the US does end up in a protracted fight against the Chinese, it may not have the industrial capacity to “truly compete”.

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