In 2020, says Michael Beckley in Foreign Affairs, I argued in this magazine that the fate of America was not, as most predicted, to remain “leader of the liberal international order” or adapt to a “post-American multipolar world”. Instead, I said the most likely trajectory was for the country to become a “rogue superpower”, neither internationalist nor isolationist, but “aggressive, powerful, and increasingly out for itself”. In this light, Donald Trump is “more accelerant than architect”, channelling long-simmering frustrations with America’s global role, and deeper structural forces “pulling US strategy inward”. One reason the country is going rogue is because it can – US consumers buy more of the world’s goods than China and the Eurozone combined; militarily, the US is still the only country that can fight major wars thousands of miles from its shores.

Today, the US has not just the means to strike out alone, but also the motive. The American-led liberal order has “outlived its original purpose”, growing into a “maze of burdens and vulnerabilities”. It didn’t fail, it triumphed over threats that no longer exist. In the 1950s, the Soviet Union controlled nearly half of Eurasia and possessed twice the military power of western Europe. Communist parties – “committed to abolishing private property” – controlled a third of global industrial output, and regularly won up to 40% of the vote in major democracies. The threat to the American way of life was clear, and the US defence of the capitalist order worked. But that success created new problems the old order was never designed to solve. Vigorous allies became ageing dependents; globalisation hollowed out American industry while enriching and empowering ruthless foreign autocrats. The result? Abandoning it all and becoming a rogue superpower is the “path of least resistance”.

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