The Kremlin says it is “cautiously optimistic” about a ceasefire in Ukraine, after Vladimir Putin met Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff in Moscow last night. A spokesman said the Russian president will speak to Trump once Witkoff has returned to the US, but that there is still “a lot of work to do”. Volodymyr Zelensky described Putin’s response as “manipulative” and “highly predictable”. The UK economy unexpectedly shrank by 0.1% in January, due to a drop-off in manufacturing, and slowdowns in oil and gas extraction. It’s a blow to the government, KPMG chief economist Yael Selfin tells BBC News, and means Chancellor Rachel Reeves will probably “tighten purse strings” in the Spring Statement. Stargazers around the world have been treated to a rare total lunar eclipse, or “blood moon”. The celestial phenomenon occurs when Earth passes directly between the sun and the moon, blocking almost all the star’s light from the lunar surface and tinting it a deep, coppery red.

A Russian victory would be “pyrrhic at best”

Whatever happens with the ceasefire negotiations, say Andrew Kosenko and Peter Liberman in Foreign Affairs, it’s worth considering what exactly Russia has gained from the Ukraine war, beyond furthering Vladimir Putin’s nationalist ambitions. The answer is: not much. The population of the five regions under partial or total Russian occupation has more than halved since the original invasion in 2014, and those left behind are “older, less educated and more likely to have health problems”. Local officials have understandably been reluctant to collaborate with their Russian occupiers, so crime is “rampant”, with much of the regions’ governance led by “minor local militants”.

The economic picture is dismal. Three years of war have effectively wiped several productive cities off the map: in Mariupol, previously home to more than 500,000 people, 90% of the buildings have been razed. In Bakhmut and Vovchansk, there are “no intact structures left, and certainly no people”. Output has suffered accordingly: Russian-occupied Donetsk produced 2.9 million tons of coal in 2022, down from 37.8 million in 2013. In four of the five regions, Russian federal subsidies account for 90% of their budget. Then there are the broader consequences: the 750,000 Russian casualties, including up to 200,000 killed; the destruction of most of the materiel inherited from the Soviet era; the emigration of up to 1.3 million mostly young, educated and affluent Russians. Oil sanctions alone are thought to have cost Moscow $136bn in lost export earnings. Even if Putin does emerge from this terrible conflict with territorial gains, it’ll go down as a “pyrrhic victory, at best”.